Center for Strategic and International Studies
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Published
August 1, 2024
Can Maduro Pull off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?
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Commentary
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International Affairs
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Summary
- Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy at Center for Strategic and International Studies analyze that Venezuela's recent elections showcased a blatant electoral theft by President Maduro, who manipulated election conditions, barred opposition candidates, and used repression to secure a disputed victory over Edmundo González.
- The article asserts that the Maduro regime’s fraudulent actions, including blocking international observations and harassing opposition supporters, risk severe international isolation and a possible constitutional crisis if vote tabulations are not transparently released, undermining any claims to democratic legitimacy.
Overview:
This article was written by Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy at Center for Strategic and International Studies.
- It outlines the events leading up to, during, and following the contested Venezuelan election, marking a severe electoral fraud by President Nicolás Maduro.
- The opposition's preparations and international response are critical to understanding the larger implications on regional stability and democratic integrity.
Key Quotes:
- Opposition leader María Corina Machado stated, "There are only two outcomes: a landslide victory or an obscene fraud."
- President Nicolás Maduro had asserted his determination to win "by hook or by crook," foreshadowing the electoral manipulations.
What They Discuss:
- The Venezuelan regime failed to meet any conditions for free and fair elections, as agreed in the Barbados agreement.
- The opposition's candidate Edmundo González Urrutia was shown to lead by a significant margin, according to multiple polls, contradicting the CNE's official results.
- The regime conducted widespread repression, detaining opposition members and obstructing their campaigns.
- The National Electoral Council limited voter participation, especially among the diaspora of 5 million eligible citizens.
- International actors, including Colombia and Brazil, have withheld recognition of the election results, emphasizing the necessity for transparency.
What They Recommend:
- The opposition needs to maintain large and impactful protests to draw international attention and support.
- Leveraging findings from credible organizations like the Carter Center and the OAS is crucial to discrediting the fraudulent election.
- Civil society organizations should continue to document and share evidence of electoral abuses.
- Acquiring and publicizing unaltered vote tabulation sheets is essential to proving electoral fraud.
Key Takeaways:
- The Venezuelan election was marred by severe irregularities and fraud, undermining democratic principles.
- The Maduro regime has engaged in significant repression to maintain power, posing risks to stability.
- International recognition of the election results is divided, with key countries yet to endorse Maduro's victory.
- The opposition's strategy focuses on continuing protests, leveraging international support, and substantiating their claims of fraud through evidence.
This is a brief overview of the article by Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy at Center for Strategic and International Studies. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.
Original Read Time
9 min
Organization
The Brookings Institution
Category
Israel-Gaza War
Political Ideology
Center Left