Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
·
Published
June 17, 2024

How AI Might Affect Decisionmaking in a National Security Crisis

Liberal
Policy Analysis
·
Artificial Intelligence
Share this article

Summary

  • Christopher S. Chivvis and Jennifer Kavanagh at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss the potential for AI to both enhance and complicate decision-making within the U.S. National Security Council, highlighting challenges like information overload and misperceptions.
  • The article asserts that advanced AI could combat groupthink by offering diverse perspectives but also risks intensifying it due to overconfidence in AI systems, and emphasizes the need for training and AI governance to ensure effective use and stability in crises.

Overview:  

This article was written by Christopher S. Chivvis and Jennifer Kavanagh at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

  • AI systems can both accelerate and complicate decision-making in national security scenarios.
  • Overconfidence in AI recommendations could lead to groupthink and potentially dangerous misperceptions.

Key Quotes:  

  • "AI-enabled systems can help accelerate the speed of commanders’ decisions and improve the quality and accuracy of those decisions."
  • "In reality, AI systems are only as good as the data they are trained on, and even the best AI have biases, make errors, and malfunction in unexpected ways."

What They Discuss:

  • The proliferation of AI in national security could slow decision-making because AI systems produce additional data that need to be evaluated.
  • AI’s potential to create uncertainty in crisis situations involves deepfake videos and potentially misleading information.
  • AI might challenge existing groupthink in decision-making settings by offering out-of-the-box ideas but could also entrench it if decision-makers over-rely on AI recommendations.
  • The development of AI tools by well-funded agencies could disturb the balance of influence among key governmental bodies like the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community.
  • Misjudging adversary actions influenced by AI systems could escalate crises due to the risk of miscalculation.

What They Recommend:

  • Implement thorough training for policymakers on AI systems to understand their limits and capabilities.
  • Establish an AI governance regime similar to arms control to manage and reduce risks of AI deployment in military contexts.
  • Foster international cooperation, especially between the U.S. and China, on AI safety and governance measures.

Key Takeaways:

  • AI has the dual potential to both streamline and complicate crisis decision-making processes.
  • Training and prior experience with AI tools are crucial for their effective and safe use.
  • Establishing clear norms and agreements on AI use is important for reducing the risk of misperceptions and unintended escalations.
  • Policymakers must be wary of AI’s potential to sway groupthink and maintain a balanced approach incorporating human judgement.

This is a brief overview of the article by Christopher S. Chivvis and Jennifer Kavanagh at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.

Related articles

All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
Trump 2.0: A Survival Guide for Democrats
American Enterprise Institute
·
Nov 18, 2023

Trump 2.0: A Survival Guide for Democrats

Summary

The Democratic Party is currently facing significant challenges in regaining favor after recent electoral losses, as only 33 percent of Americans view the party positively. The party's struggle to adapt and connect with voters indicates a pressing need for strategic changes to compete effectively in future elections, per commentary from American Enterprise Institute.

Conservative
Op-Ed
·
U.S. Government & Politics
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
How federal layoffs set the stage for greater privatization and automation of the US government
Brookings
·
Nov 18, 2023

How federal layoffs set the stage for greater privatization and automation of the US government

Summary

The federal government's effort to downsize may lead to increased privatization and automation. This shift raises concerns about the accessibility and fairness of services for Americans reliant on government support, per commentary from Brookings.

Leans Left
Commentary
·
U.S. Government & Politics
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
Domestic Deployment of the Military: The Past, Present, and Potential Future
Center for American Progress
·
Nov 18, 2023

Domestic Deployment of the Military: The Past, Present, and Potential Future

Summary

In exploring how military deployment could shape domestic governance, recent discussions highlight potential risks under the Trump administration. The report indicates that such actions, unless carefully monitored, could undermine constitutional safeguards and public safety, per commentary from Center for American Progress.

Progressive
Report
·
U.S. Military & Defense
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
The Art of a Good Deal: Ukraine’s Strategic Economic Opportunity for the United States
Council on Foreign Relations
·
Nov 18, 2023

The Art of a Good Deal: Ukraine’s Strategic Economic Opportunity for the United States

Summary

Ukraine presents a strategic economic opportunity for the United States, particularly as the nation is rich in critical minerals and advanced technology sectors. Investing in Ukraine not only enhances economic ties but also fortifies U.S. national security interests amid geopolitical tensions, per commentary from Council on Foreign Relations.

Center
Commentary
·
Ukraine-Russia War
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico could hurt Trump’s quest for US energy dominance
Atlantic Council
·
Nov 18, 2023

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico could hurt Trump’s quest for US energy dominance

Summary

Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could significantly undermine U.S. energy dominance by raising domestic energy prices and disrupting critical supply chains. These actions may drive U.S. trading partners to seek alternatives, diminishing American competitiveness in energy exports, per commentary from Atlantic Council.

Leans Right
Commentary
·
Global Economy
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
No results found.
Original Read Time
9 min
Organization
The Brookings Institution
Category
Israel-Gaza War
Political Ideology
Center Left

We make expert analysis of current events
simple and accessible for all.

Join us in elevating our public discourse.