Trump has big plans for climate and energy policy, but can he implement them?

Overview:

This article was written by Samantha Gross and Louison Sall at Brookings.

• A second Trump administration would emphasize fossil fuel dominance and deregulation while rolling back renewable energy initiatives.
• Success in achieving these goals would depend largely on congressional support and judicial interpretations of regulatory laws.

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Key Quotes:

• “Trump claims that aggressive drilling policies could reduce energy costs by 50%.”
• "A second Trump administration would likely succeed in changing key regulations, which the executive branch can accomplish on its own."

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What They Discuss:

• Trump aims to increase domestic fossil fuel production, refilling the strategic petroleum reserve, and removing delays on federal drilling permits and leases.
• Despite Trump's criticism of Biden’s renewable energy policies, renewable energies like wind and solar have been proven to be cost-effective in many cases.
• Trump's statements on U.S. energy resource sizes are often exaggerated; the U.S. ranks between ninth and 11th for oil reserves and fourth or fifth for natural gas reserves.
• Biden-era climate and energy laws such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) would be difficult to repeal without significant congressional support.
• Supreme Court decisions like West Virginia v. EPA and the end of Chevron deference could aid a Trump administration in rolling back regulations.

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What They Recommend:

• The authors recommend looking critically at the feasibility of Trump's energy policy goals, especially his claims about reducing energy costs through increased drilling.
• They suggest understanding the role of existing laws like the IIJA and IRA that may limit the extent to which future administrations can undo current policies.
• They highlight the importance of acknowledging market realities, such as the global pricing of oil, which might undermine the purported benefits of aggressive drilling policies.

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Key Takeaways:

• Achieving Trump's extensive energy policy changes requires more than executive orders; congressional support and judicial interpretations are crucial.
• A rightward shift in federal courts and more experienced administration staff could make regulatory rollbacks more likely under a potential second Trump administration.
• Renewable energy initiatives face strong opposition from Trump, but existing investments and policies under Biden may provide resilience against complete rollbacks.
• Supreme Court rulings on administrative law could lead to significant changes in how regulations are interpreted and enforced.

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This is a brief overview of the article by Samantha Gross and Louison Sall at Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.