Brookings
·
Published
December 20, 2023

What to watch in Ukraine in 2024

Leans Left
Commentary
·
Ukraine-Russia War
Share this article

Summary

  • Brookings experts are watching the EU's capability to fund Ukraine, NATO's strategy for integrating Ukraine, and the possibility of either Russia or Ukraine breaking through stalemate on the battlefied.
  • They are also watching Western defense industry's ability to match Russia's, the international community's potential appropriation of Russian assets for Ukraine's rebuilding, and the influence of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Overview:

This article from Brookings experts Michael E. O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmüller, and David Wessel examines the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia as it heads into 2024, highlighting potential military and political turning points. It discusses the current stalemate on the battlefield, the vacillation of Ukraine’s allies, and internal political tensions in Kyiv, all of which could impact Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia.

Key Points:

  1. The battlefield situation is largely stalemated, with the main action shifting to Ukraine’s skies. Russia has bombarded Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure, while Ukraine has managed to damage and drive the Russian Navy from its base in Crimea.
  2. European countries, supplying more than 50% of Western aid for Ukraine, are struggling to maintain their support. Hungary's opposition to EU membership talks with Ukraine and the Slovak government's opposition to support for Ukraine highlight these challenges.
  3. In the United States, President Biden is facing difficulties in gaining Congressional approval for his supplemental request of $61 billion for Ukraine.
  4. Internal political tensions in Ukraine are rising, with criticism of President Zelenskyy and his government becoming more evident.

What They're Watching in 2024:

  • The ability of the EU to provide additional funding to Ukraine and NATO's approach to anchoring Ukraine in Western security institutions.
  • Whether either side in the conflict can break out of the military stalemates of 2023.
  • The capacity of Western defense industrial bases and political will to keep up with that of Russia.
  • The potential seizure of Russian assets by the international community to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.
  • The impact of the U.S. presidential race of 2024 on the situation in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways:

  • The article underscores the complexity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the challenges faced by Ukraine and its Western allies.
  • It highlights the importance of continued support from Western nations for Ukraine's defense and the potential consequences of a lack of support.
  • The article suggests that the winter of 2023-24 could be a critical period for the conflict, both militarily and politically.

This is a brief overview of the article from Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.

Related articles

All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
All Topics
Breaking Down the Biden Administration’s National Rent Stabilization Proposal
Urban Institute
·
Nov 18, 2023

Breaking Down the Biden Administration’s National Rent Stabilization Proposal

Summary
  • Urban Institute experts write that the Biden administration's rent stabilization proposal aims to cap annual rent increases at 5% for units owned by large landlords, conditioned on maintaining existing tax breaks, aiming to stabilize housing and protect tenants from eviction or displacement.
  • The experts argue that while the proposal could make more units affordable for low-income residents, it may also reduce the overall supply of rental units as landlords might convert properties or avoid entering the market, potentially driving up rents for uncontrolled units.
Liberal
Policy Analysis
·
U.S. Economy
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
How AI Might Affect Decisionmaking in a National Security Crisis
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
·
Nov 18, 2023

How AI Might Affect Decisionmaking in a National Security Crisis

Summary
  • Christopher S. Chivvis and Jennifer Kavanagh at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss the potential for AI to both enhance and complicate decision-making within the U.S. National Security Council, highlighting challenges like information overload and misperceptions.
  • The article asserts that advanced AI could combat groupthink by offering diverse perspectives but also risks intensifying it due to overconfidence in AI systems, and emphasizes the need for training and AI governance to ensure effective use and stability in crises.
Liberal
Policy Analysis
·
Artificial Intelligence
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
Is Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race?
Brookings
·
Nov 18, 2023

Is Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race?

Summary
  • Experts at Brookings argue that Kamala Harris has regained lost ground for the Democrats, erasing the "enthusiasm gap" and leading in both national and key swing state polls against Donald Trump.
  • They examine the reliability of poll averages, highlighting historical underestimation of Trump’s support and the necessity for Harris to maintain significant momentum to secure victory.
Leans Left
Commentary
·
2024 U.S. Elections
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
Trump misses a golden opportunity in his acceptance speech
Brookings
·
Nov 18, 2023

Trump misses a golden opportunity in his acceptance speech

Summary
  • Elaine Kamarck and William A. Galston at Brookings examine that the Republican National Convention highlighted a stark contrast between a verbose Trump and a struggling Biden, leading to widespread speculation about Biden's potential exit and Kamala Harris's possible rise as the Democratic candidate.
  • The article argues that while Trump missed an opportunity to solidify his lead with a long-winded, undisciplined speech, Democratic officials and voters are increasingly viewing Biden as a weakened candidate, potentially paving the way for Harris to step in and challenge Trump's controversial policies.
Leans Left
Commentary
·
2024 U.S. Elections
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
Why is Kamala Harris wrapping up the Democratic nomination so quickly?
Brookings
·
Nov 18, 2023

Why is Kamala Harris wrapping up the Democratic nomination so quickly?

Summary
  • Elaine Kamarck at Brookings writes that Joe Biden's endorsement of Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party's nomination is due to her extensive presidential-level vetting, practical time constraints, and her robust political experience.

  • The article asserts that Harris' widespread delegate support, substantial financial backing, and the urgent need for party unity and focus on the general election are key reasons for the swift consolidation around her candidacy.
Leans Left
Commentary
·
2024 U.S. Elections
Read summary
(1 min.)
-->
No results found.
Original Read Time
9 min
Organization
The Brookings Institution
Category
Israel-Gaza War
Political Ideology
Center Left

We make expert analysis of current events
simple and accessible for all.

Join us in elevating our public discourse.