Goldman Sachs Global Institute
·
Published
December 14, 2023

The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power

Private Sector
Research
·
Artificial Intelligence
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Summary

  • Goldman Sachs Global Institute estimates AI could contribute 1.5% to annual productivity growth over a ten-year period, lifting global GDP by nearly $7 trillion.
  • U.S. and China are top AI competitors, but geopolitical swing states like India, Japan, Israel, UAE, and South Korea can form "innovation blocs" and cooperate with each other.

Overview:

  • This article was written by Jared Cohen, George Lee, Lucas Greenbaum, Frank Long, and Wilson Shirley, published by Goldman Sachs Global Institute.
  • It explores the transformative impact of generative AI on global markets, geopolitics, and the balance of power among nations.
  • The authors discuss the urgent need for strategic planning during the "inter-AI years" to shape the future of AI-enabled technology.

Key Quotes:

  1. "The emergence of generative AI marks a transformational moment that will influence the course of markets and alter the balance of power among nations."
  2. "Decisions made today will determine what is possible in the future. A generative world order will emerge.​

What They Discuss:

  • The article highlights the potential of generative AI to contribute 1.5% to annual productivity growth over ten years, lifting global GDP by nearly $7 trillion.
  • It emphasizes the role of AI in economic growth, technological revolution, and geopolitical dynamics.
  • The authors examine the US and China's position as AI superpowers and their complex relationship as competitors and collaborators in AI research.
  • The significant role of large language models (LLMs) in AI innovation and competition is analyzed, along with the concerns and strategies of open and closed societies regarding AI.
  • The impact of US-led export controls on semiconductors on China's technological development is discussed, highlighting the geopolitical implications.

What They Recommend:

  • The authors recommend a strategic approach to AI development, balancing the need for innovation with the management of risks and geopolitical considerations.
  • They suggest fostering international cooperation and partnerships in AI research and development to address global challenges and opportunities.

Key Takeaways:

  • Generative AI is reshaping global economic and geopolitical landscapes, with significant implications for national strategies and international relations.
  • The US and China are key players in the AI domain, with their actions influencing the global AI landscape.
  • Strategic planning and international collaboration are essential for harnessing the potential of AI while managing its risks and challenges.​

This is a brief overview of Lucas Greenbaum, Frank Long, and Wilson Shirley's work from Goldman Sachs. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.

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Original Read Time
9 min
Organization
The Brookings Institution
Category
Israel-Gaza War
Political Ideology
Center Left

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