Brookings
·
Published
January 16, 2024
Trump wins Iowa — no surprises there. What happens next?
Leans Left
Commentary
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2024 U.S. Elections
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Summary
- Trump's win in Iowa was expected, and he secured over 50% of the vote, performing well across various voter groups.
- The race for second place was also as predicted, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finishing second and third, respectively.
Overview:
- The article by Elaine Kamarck analyzes the results of the Republican Iowa caucus, focusing on Donald Trump's victory and its implications for the upcoming nomination race.
- Trump's win in Iowa was expected, and he secured over 50% of the vote, performing well across various voter groups.
- The race for second place was also as predicted, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finishing second and third, respectively.
Key Quotes:
- "Trump won Iowa with just over 50% of the vote. He didn’t exceed expectations but neither did he fall below them."
- "The next two months are likely to settle the question once and for all: Will Trump wrap up the Republican nomination early and start the battle against Joe Biden by mid-March or will he face a fight from someone (most likely Haley) all the way to the convention?"
What They Discuss:
- The dynamics of the Republican nomination process as a sequence of state races, each influenced by the previous one.
- The potential impact of the Iowa results on upcoming primaries, especially in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
- The strategic positions of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in the race and their potential to challenge Trump.
- The unique aspects of different state electorates and how they might affect the candidates' performances.
- The importance of delegate accumulation in the nomination process, leading up to "Super Tuesday."
What They Recommend:
- The article does not explicitly recommend any specific actions but provides an analysis of the current political landscape and potential strategies for the candidates.
Key Takeaways:
- Trump's victory in Iowa sets the stage for the next primaries, with his performance likely influencing the strategies of other candidates.
- The race for the Republican nomination is still open, with potential challenges from Haley and DeSantis.
- The upcoming primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and "Super Tuesday" states will be crucial in determining the Republican nominee.
This is a brief overview of Elaine Kamarck's work from Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.
Original Read Time
9 min
Organization
The Brookings Institution
Category
Israel-Gaza War
Political Ideology
Center Left